➕Probabilistic-Artificial-Intelligence

Active Learning concerns methods to decide how to sample the most useful information in a specific domain; how can you select the best sample for an unknown model? Gathering data is very costly, we would like to create some principled manner to choose the best data point to humanly label in order to have the best model. In this setting, we are interested in the concept of usefulness of information. One of our main goals is to reduce uncertainty, thus, Entropy-based (mutual information) methods are often used. For example, we can use active learning to choose what samples needs to be labelled in order to have highest accuracy on the trained model, when labelling is costly. ...

We have a prior $p(\text{model})$, we have a posterior $p(\text{model} \mid \text{data})$, a likelihood $p(\text{data} \mid \text{model})$ and $p(\text{data})$ is called the evidence. Classical Linear regression $$ y = w^{T}x + \varepsilon $$ Where $\varepsilon \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma_{n}^{2}I)$ and it’s the irreducible noise, an error that cannot be eliminated by any model in the model class, this is also called aleatoric uncertainty. One could write this as follows: $y \sim \mathcal{N}(w^{T}x, \sigma^{2}_{n}I)$ and it’s the exact same thing as the previous, so if we look for the MLE estimate now we get ...

Robbins-Moro Algorithm The Algorithm $$ w_{n+1} = w_{n} - \alpha_{n} \Delta w_{n} $$For example with $\alpha_{0} > \alpha_{1} > \dots > \alpha_{n} \dots$, and $\alpha_{t} = \frac{1}{t}$ they satisfy the condition (in practice we use a constant $\alpha$, but we lose the convergence guarantee by Robbins Moro). More generally, the Robbins-Moro conditions re: $\sum_{n} \alpha_{n} = \infty$ $\sum_{n} \alpha_{n}^{2} < \infty$ Then the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the best answer. One nice thing about this, is that we don’t need gradients. But often we use gradient versions (stochastic gradient descent and similar), using auto-grad, see Backpropagation. But learning with gradients brings some drawbacks: ...

While Active Learning looks for the most informative points to recover a true underlying function, Bayesian Optimization is just interested to find the maximum of that function. In Bayesian Optimization, we ask for the best way to find sequentially a set of points $x_{1}, \dots, x_{n}$ to find $\max_{x \in \mathcal{X}} f(x)$ for a certain unknown function $f$. This is what the whole thing is about. Definitions First we will introduce some useful definitions in this context. These were also somewhat introduced in N-Bandit Problem, which is one of the classical optimization problems we can find in the literature. ...

Gaussian processes can be viewed through a Bayesian lens of the function space: rather than sampling over individual data points, we are now sampling over entire functions. They extend the idea of bayesian linear regression by introducing an infinite number of feature functions for the input XXX. In geostatistics, Gaussian processes are referred to as kriging regressions, and many other models, such as Kalman Filters or radial basis function networks, can be understood as special cases of Gaussian processes. In this framework, certain functions are more likely than others, and we aim to model this probability distribution. ...